Anleitungen » How the Cowboys offense can help the defense get mo

re turnovers This year the turnover story is a fairly simple one for the Cowboys. Through four games Dallas Cowboys Hats , the Cowboys are the only team in the league without an interception, and their two takeaways (both fumble recoveries) in four games rank them dead last in the league.You don’t need an advanced degree in statistics to intuitively understand that teams that are able to gain a turnover advantage are more likely to win games.Turnover differential is (obviously) the keyTurnover differential is a stat that is highly correlated with winning in the NFL. The bigger the turnover differential in your favor, the bigger the chance you’ll win the game. Heck, we even have the numbers to prove it: In 2017, teams that won the turnover battle won 79 percent of the time (154 wins out of 195 games). Here’s a breakdown of winning percentages by turnover differential: Unfortunately, knowing about the importance of turnovers and actually getting turnovers are two very different things, in part also because of the inherent randomness of turnovers. In practice, the Cowboys are doing their due diligence by practicing and emphasizing things like ball control, fumble recoveries, and ball stripping, all in the hopes of increasing their odds of getting a turnover.But outside of those specific drills, there may be a much bigger factor in determining the number of defensive takeaways, and specifically interceptions: the Cowboys’ offense.The Cowboys offense can significantly help the defense’s turnover chancesAt first glance, this may seem like an odd statement, but it will make a lot more sense when you look at when the majority of interceptions are thrown: Only 21% of the 430 interceptions thrown last year in the regular season happened when the offense was playing with a lead. 62% of all interceptions occurred when the offense was playing from behind. Most interceptions happen when you’re not playing with a lead.Here’s a detailed breakdown of the interceptions thrown last year Dallas Cowboys Womens Hoodie , listed by the score differential at the time when the interceptions were thrown. Last year, like every year before that, teams threw a lot more interceptions when they were playing from behind than they did when playing with a lead. And when you stop to think about it, the numbers make sense. Once you’re playing from behind you start taking more risks in your passing game in an effort to catch up.It’s all about being on the right side of the leadNot only do teams playing from behind throw the ball a lot more often than the teams playing with a lead, they also have those passes intercepted more often. Similarly, a team playing with a lead will generally find it easier to record interceptions on defense.The stats bear this out. The interception rate (Interceptions divided by passing attempts) increases the further a team is behind; conversely, when playing with a lead teams tend to take fewer risks in the passing game, which in turn leads to fewer mistakes and turnovers. For the Cowboys, scoring more and earlier will put their opponents in the situation described above, where they have to lean on the pass and take greater risks in order to try catch up. This in turn will allow the defense to make more plays. As the opposing offenses are forced to go to the pass, the defense can sit back in its nickel and dime formations and simply wait for the opposing offenses to make mistakes.And as long as the Cowboys don’t play some form of weird prevent defense, the interceptions will eventually come. In last week’s playoff tracker, we looked at why the Cowboys faced a must-win game in Washington: Well, the Cowboys lost, and their playoff odds took a big dive. And even with a win against the Titans in two weeks (which is by no means a given for this team) Womens Customized Dallas Cowboys Jerseys , the Cowboys will not hit the halfway mark of the season with a winning record.Winter is here for the Dallas Cowboys.What is the escalation of a must-win game? Probably a desperation game. Which is why the Cowboys face a desperation game against the Titans: If the Cowboys win and improve to 4-4, their playoff increase to 32%. If they lose and drop to 3-5, their playoff odds drop to just 11%. You might feel that these numbers are too generic and don’t apply to the specific situation of the Cowboys, and that may be true. So here’s a look at the 10 seasons in which the Cowboys started either 4-4 or 3-5: 10 seasons, 7.0 wins on average, lucked into the playoffs twice, nine wins as a ceiling. And they never made the playoffs - or had a winning record - after starting 3-5. Desperation.Other metrics also project the same old Jason Garrett song and dance, barring an improbable turnaround in player and coaching performance.Pythagorean Formula: 8.2 winsElo Ratings: 7.8 winsFootball Outsiders: 7.7 winsBut this is nothing new, as we pointed out after Week 3, when we said Winter is Coming for the Cowboys.Nothing has changed. We’re just further along into yet another average Garrett season.And keep this in mind: With another coach, the Cowboys might be sitting pretty at 5-2, but Garrett’s conservative game management on the final offensive drives is a key reason why the Cowboys didn’t get a chance to win both the Texans and Redskins games.What bugs me most is Garrett should know better; his conservative game management has has cost him multiple games, as Michael Strawn summarizes here in his most recent article. Garrett and his staff now have two weeks to develop a gameplan to defeat the 3-4 Titans. Fail at that task and Garrett should start polishing his resum and start tidying up his desk.